Don't give up (yet)

For many fans it seems West Ham are already down. Martin Samuel has just written a long piece in the Sunday Times headlined, "West Ham's squad looks immune to even the  smartest coaching." He makes a couple of good points, namely that fans boycotting games isn't going to help the confidence of the players (protests are best done before or after matches) and also that the stadium isn't the major problem. 

Samuel writes: "Dissenters often pretend that all they want is the old West Ham back — pie and mash, the Boleyn Ground, a trophy every 43 years — but the reality is the mood is synced to the football. When West Ham are playing well, the London Stadium is not perfect, but fine. It has noise, it has atmosphere. When West Ham are making progress in Europe or beating Chelsea, there is no problem at all. In times like this, however, it sucks the life from all who enter. The fans are absent, angry or silent. The players are anxious and lost."

He's also right about the lack of strategy and the fact that the squad is a mishmash of players assembled by David Moyes, David Sullivan, Tim Steidten, Graham Potter and Kyle Macaulay. As he says: "This is a stupid football club, making stupid decisions and it has done for too long."

But has all hope gone? As Peter Gabriel and Kate Bush might suggest, Don't Give Up. Or not just yet. There are 29 games left. As Michael Carrick said on Match of The Day, there's talent in a forward line of Summerville, Paqueta, Wilson and Bowen. While Niclas Fullkrug, if he ever gets fit, is still loved at Borussia Dortmund and might come good with an extended run. 

Our defending from corners has been terrible, but as Robert Green revealed on Sky, Big Sam used to drill the players for hours on defending corners so that it became easy on match days. Surely Nuno can do the same? Kilman and Todibo don't seem to be able to play as a partnership but could one of them improve with a new signing or Igor alongside them? While there were signs in Nuno's first two games that Mavropanos was cutting out the unforced errors.

We have to hope that Nuno gets over his early madness for tinkering. Surely he must now have the evidence that inverted full backs don't work and Irving and Soucek are too slow in central midfield? In his first two games starting with Magassa as a defensive midfielder and replacing him late on with Potts worked well enough. There's also hope that Fernandes, after scoring at Leeds, is going to start looking like a £40m midfielder.

It's not going to be easy. Sunderland have 17 points and seem certain to stay up. We have to hope that the relegation battle involves Wolves, Burnley, Leeds and perhaps a middling club like Notts Forest, Fulham or Brentford dragged down by injuries or a poor run. We need to not get cut adrift by Christmas. Creativity will be needed in the January window with perhaps loans for a defender, a young striker and a box-to-box midfielder. But win a few games and relegation becomes somebody else's problem. It's not all over yet.

Would you swap relegation for winning the Europa Conference?

West Ham fans are not noted for their Faustian pacts, but recently a number of friends have been speculating over whether they would swap relegation for winning the Europa Conference. A surprising number, particularly younger fans who have never see WHU win anything, said they would. Having been lucky enough to see the Hammers win the FA Cup in 1975 and 1980 I'm not so sure. Relegation could see the club enter a long-term decline and be marooned in the Championship for years like Leeds were. I'd maybe swap relegation for an FA Cup or Europa League win but although the Europa Conference is something, it's very much the poor relation of the Europa League. Though couldn't we just this once make it easy by avoiding relegation and winning the Europa Conference? Or would that be too unlike West Ham? 

Natural born pessimist

Blooming Arsenal letting us down again. So a couple of 5-0 defeats and a massive win for Watford at Arsenal could see us in the relegation spots. Or am I being overly-pessimistic? If anyone could pull off the unlikeliest relegation in history it would be West Ham. Please let us get a point at Old Trafford tonight so the mathematical doubt is over. Otherwise we are relying on our old friend Hayden Mullins to mess it up against Arsenal and WHU not to get thrashed by cricket scores against United and Villa. That could never happen — or could it?

Money's too tight to mention?

There's a good piece on why West Ham can't afford to be relegated on BBC Sport. It contains some worrying figures, not least the fact that the wages to turnover ratio is 71 per cent and that the club wage bill has increased by £51million since 2016. The club made a pre-tax loss of £28m last year and borrowed another £39million during coronavirus, with Sullivan and Gold also putting in £30m.

You wonder who would buy expensive misfits such as Haller, Anderson and Fornals. They would all have to be sold at a loss and we might be left trying to build a team around whoever was left. Who would want to stay? Maybe just Noble, Cresswell, Fredericks, Johnson and Snodgrass. 

It's also hard not to agree with the conclusion of Simon Stone's piece: "All this adds to the scrutiny around a club who have top-six potential on every metric - fans, turnover, transfer spend, wages, location and stadium capacity - but have finished there just once in 34 years."

Can we still snatch relegation from the jaws of safety?

Old habits die hard. It's still difficult not to glance at the bottom of the table and ponder what happens if West Ham lose all five remaining fixtures and finish on 37 points. For Norwich to catch us, they would have to win two games out of their run in of Liverpool, Man United, Chelsea and Arsenal, which is very unlikely. Cardiff and Sunderland have to play each other so neither can get full points, while Fulham would have to win three out of four to overtake us as we have a better goal difference. West Brom will surely lose away to Man City and Arsenal, while Swansea and Aston Villa have to make up four and three points on us. So it's unlikely we would go down, but mathematically possible. And if it can go wrong at West Ham it invariable]y does, so I'll still sleep much easier if we can get a point at the Library tonight.

Can we still go down?

My pal Mystic Morris writes:

Have worked out a combination of results that would see us relegated.

It includes WHU losing 6-0 to Everton, and 3-0 to Reading

Newcastle beating Arsenal 6-0 at the Emirates.

Norwich winning 3-0 at Man City.

WHU would then be relegated on goal difference…

[but think we are mathematically safe if Sunderland fail to beat Stoke tonight]

We're going to Coventry…

Wigan 3 West Ham 2

Is it really necessary to be getting up at six am on a Sunday for a relegation party? It’s a long wait for the first train from Finsbury Park, then the Central line and a ten quid taxi from Stratford to meet Fraser at Upton Park, as the tubes aren’t running. The train would be easier of course, but the chance of free coaches from Sullivan and Gold has affected my sanity.

The coaches leave at 8.30 and then it’s a long drive past roadworks and signs for Wembley Stadium that we won’t need ever again. Still, at least we get to see an Only Fools and Horses dvd, the one where the coaches drivers gets pissed and then the coach blows up. Someone wonders if we couldn’t have one of David Sullivan’s private collection of saucier dvds.

It rains immediately we’re in Wigan. We trek across a volcanic ash-strewn car park to a sports bar and then on to the Red Robin pub. We can hear loud chants of “Avram Grant, he’s a c***!” from the Hammers fans outside. The bouncers have bent noses and look like they’ve played rugby league for 200 years.

There’s a mood of dark humour inside, where we meet Michelle and Tom from Ken’s Café. It’s four deep at the bar, the Adnams is off, and there’s a raucous chorus of “Come on Eileen!” aimed at a barmaid of the same name. Then a mass pogo and cries of “Let’s go f***ing mental!” as expensively purchased and long awaited cold beer is thrown in the air and a lampshade removed.

There’s also some nastier anti-Semitic chants aimed by a minority of fans at Avram. Let’s be clear, he might be useless but it’s not because of his religion.

RIGHT ROYAL COCKNEY KNEES-UP
Matt and Lisa emerge from a delayed Virgin train and we head to the ground. There’s more “Lets go f***ing mental” fans jumping up and down in the North Stand and a man in an Osama Bin Laden mask (presumably not taken out by West Ham’s shoot-to-miss Seal team) who provokes a chorus of “He’s got a bomb!” And here we find Big Joe and Mike O’Brien having a cockney knees-up too.

“The Queen Mum will be coming to boost our morale soon,” suggests Matt, observing the relegation Blitz spirit.

As ever, it’s an eccentric team selection from Grant. As in the Carling Cup semi-final, he opts for Zavon Hines, who’s had a lengthy injury and never really proved himself as a Premier League player, while keeping Cole and Keane on the bench. Gabbidon is preferred to Da Costa and Spence gets his debut at right-back. Jordan has a decent game and will surely be a regular next season, but you wonder if Jacobsen’s experience wouldn’t be better in a must-win game.

There’s a rowdy atmosphere in the West Ham end with chants of “You're going down with the West Ham!” at the meagre home fans and “Que sera sera, whatever will be will be, we're going to Coventry.”

Green makes several good early saves and after 12 minutes we take the lead as Ba heads in Hitzlsperger’s fine cross. “We are staying up!” And Fulham are winning at Birmingham.

We double our lead as Tomkins heads Hitzlsperger's free kick across goal for Ba to head the ball over the line for his seventh Hammers goal. Oh no, we have hope again…

There’s a crucial moment on half an hour when Piquionne has a clear chance, but his shot is cleared off the line. Green makes a fantastic save from Rodallega's overhead kick and then blocks Diame's shot. We’re 2-0 up at half time and look to be in control.

2-0 UP 3-2 DOWN
Except this is West Ham. We might be 2-0 up, but Wigan have created plenty of chances. Piquionne looks sluggish and is having a poor game, while Hines, despite wining several free kicks, is giving the bal away too often. While we worry that Collison won’t be able to last the game.

In a microcosm of our season Grant dithers while Martinez changes the game at half-time, sending on Sammon and Victor Moses for Tom Cleverley and James McCarthy

Matt points out that Sammon has never scored for Wigan and we all predict that he’ll break that duck against us, as Torres and De Jong did.

On 57 minutes Tomkins gives a free kick away on the edge of the box and N’Zogbia curls a great free kick into the top corner. Wigan have hope and are running the midfield.

Grant is forced to act as Spector limps off and super Scotty Parker comes on after 60 minutes.

In a Hammers’ breakaway Ba is sent clear but instead of bagging his hat-trick shoots at Al Habsi. Another crucial moment.

The game’s going away from West Ham, but Grant can’t see it. Sure enough, Hines loses possession in midfield, a through ball is played towards Sammon, he steps round Danny Gabbidon too easily, and slots home his first Wigan goal.

As Sammon scores a plane appears in the sky trailing the banner: “Avram Grant: Millwall Legend.” You wonder why Osama Bin Laden doesn’t bring it down with his rocket-propelled missile launcher.

“Going down going down!” chant the Wigan fans.

“So are we!” respond the Irons in the North Stand.

More four-letter chants are aimed at Grant by the away fans.

Predictably Avram has waited until they equalise before reacting, He brings on Cole for Piquionne after 74 minutes and Keane for Collison on 83 minutes.

The game has descended into end-to-end jumpers for goalposts schoolboy stuff. Parker has a shot saved, Hines scuffs several chances and crosses and has one off the line and Green makes a fine dive to deny Sammon.

There’s four minutes of stoppage time before we fade and die. Watson hits the post and the ball rebounds into Green’s grateful hands. Cole contrives to miss from three yards out in the 92nd minute and then, agonizingly, with the very last kick of the game, N’Zogbia comes inside Bridge to shoot and his tame effort squirms through Robert Green.

Sums up our season. And harsh on poor Greeny who’s had a great game up till then.

JUST RELEGATION FOR THE CLARET AND BLUE
Another two-goal lead blown. Twenty two points lost from winning positions. We don’t deserve to stay up. Fulham have won at Birmingham too. The Wigan fans invade the pitch in relief and there’s a cacoponous Tom Hark on the PA at the final whistle in scenes of pie-eating hysteria.

“West Ham till I die!” comes our response.

Parker comes over to the fans. Green slumps in his goal and Tomkins give his shirt to the crowd.

“Well, that all went to plan…” says Matt.

“How many relegations can one man experience in a lifetime?” I ask, calculating that it’s my fifth. “Still, at least the tubes might be running next season.”

“And Ancelloti will be our manager next season,” adds Fraser.

The texts come in and Nicola tells me that poor Nell my younger daughter is in tears. A Plymouth fan sympathises.

“Where’s your ceiling gone?” chant some young West Ham fans in the gents busy ripping off ceiling panels. We trek towards the coaches like extras from Shaun of the Dead and there’s the bizarre sight of a man in fake breasts kicking a car.

It’s a slow, comatose journey home on the M6. There’s cheers and a song to greet the Tweet that Avram been sacked and then some mooning at the Spurs coaches.

But soon it’s silence and subdued exhaustion as we finally reach Redbridge roundabout at 11pm. All played out. Then the Central Line and home at midnight to walk the dog and pour a whisky. I’ve been travelling from 6am until 12pm and ended up going down with the West Ham. Like Avram, I don’t know what I’m doing.

Too good to go down?

My pal Mystic Morris says we’re getting relegated. Yes, he’s mentioned the R word already. Could it be that bad? Certainly if Spurs and Newcastle continue to get wins we could be in trouble.

Hull will surely stay up now they’ve got 20 points and Stoke may well survive on long throws and home victories. So if two promoted sides stay up who does that leave to struggle? Bolton and WBA maybe? And who else? Surely we’ll get more points than Fulham or Blackburn?

Portsmouth might struggle without Harry, and Wigan if they sell Heskey or Zaki in the transfer window. Middlesbrough are erratic, although Sunderland will surely stay up thanks to Ferdinand and McCartney. It’s looking tight, we’re brassic and we may have to cope with a fire sale too.

Still expect no hostages to fortune from me. Mystic Morris would never forgive a survival prediction. We’re doomed, absolutely doomed.