Three-nil to the Cockney Boys!

Nottingham Forest 0 West Ham United 3 (three)

I'm in a breakout group with daughter Nell at the Racehorse pub in Carshalton for this Sky game, while Matt and Nigel are at the Wellington in Waterloo wondering what could possibly go right. Potter has made big changes. We're playing both the Greek Bloke and Mads Hermansen, who must surely have PTSD after his eight goals conceded in two games. The gaffer has abandoned five at the back and dropped three members of our porous defence in Aguerd, Todibo and Wan-Bisakka, while new signing Mateus Fernandes comes in to midfield. It's certainly a brave selection, but after Chelsea something had to be done.

It's a scrappy game, yet from the outset West Ham look a much more determined side with Fernandes adding some speed and tenacity to midfield. A cross from Ndoye goes across goal and behind Wood, Walker-Peters does well to tackle Hudson-Odoi in the box and that's about it. Even Hermansen is confidently catching crosses. Towards the end of the half the Irons create the best chance so far as Diouf and Fernandes combine to set up Paqueta for a shot that Sels does well to tip over.

Fullkrug, set up by Fernandes, has a low shot saved, but the main question after the break is can West Ham hold on for a gritty goalless draw. Potter makes a change bringing on Wilson for Fullkrug after 64 minutes. The former Newcastle man immediately looks more mobile than the big German taking players on and getting a defected shot away that Sels has to tip over. Next he takes on three defenders and shoots from a tight angle to inspire another save.

JIMMY JIMMY

The crucial change comes when Summerville arrives after 82 minutes. Paqueta nicks the ball to Jimmy who takes on two men, rolls the ball to Bowen who shoots first time and bends it into the corner before doing a knee slide to the West Ham fans. Blimey. Two minutes later Paqueta wins a block tackle, the ball breaks to Summerville in his own half and the revitalised winger races into the box to be brought down by Sangare. 

Lucas Paqueta takes a stuttering penalty and having sent the goalkeeper the wrong way gently rolls the ball into the net. Lucas runs to the away fans, makes a throwing his phone away mime and clutches his Hammers badge. Either he's having problems with his mobile phone provider  or this is a sign he intends to ignore Aston Villa's deadline day call. Paqueta has been superb throughout and is a new player now he's free of FA charges.

On WhatsApp Michael the Whovian and Big Sam both wonder if there is a connectivity problem at Sky as West Ham appear to be winning. What sort of thing is happening here? One minute into added time Summerville finds Diouf whose inviting cross is headed down and in by Callum Wilson. Three-nil! Nigel says we can thank Mystic Matt for this one as five minutes earlier Matt had predicted that Wilson would never score for the Hammers.

Even sub Jesus has failed to lay on any crosses for the stuttering home side. It's almost four when Bowen slaloms though the Forest defence for what would have been the goal of the season only to see Callum Wilson take the ball off his toe and fire at at the keeper. Luckily the pair do eventually share a laugh about this, Callum a little more than Jarrod.

What a performance and let's have a word for the Greek Bloke. Instead of a mistake waiting to happen Dinos Mavropanos has played like the Colossus of Rhodes and alongside Kilman he's made the defence look a lot tighter. Even Mads is looking less like he is fresh from the Battle of Passchendaele. Potter got his selection and subs right this time. Obviously none of us have ever doubted him or the team (much). 

We head off to the CAMRA Greater London pub of the year, the aptly-named The Hope for connoisseur's halves of Black Isle, Mild and Ash and Elm real ale. Football, eh? International fortnight is going to be a lot more comfortable after this. Irons!

LUCAS PAQUETA IS INNOCENT, OK?

So finally after two years we have a verdict and Lucas Paqueta is innocent. Shame no-one placed a wager on it. There is still the threat of sanctions over two charges of not co-operating with the investigation, which the player denied but was found guilty of. Tnough the big charge is unproven. Most of the evidence was circumstantial and if there was major corruption going on then surely the bets coming from Paqueta Island would have been for more than sums ranging from £7 to £400? 

Perhaps the locals knew Paqueta was a bit of a hothead and always likely to get booked in certain matches against rough opponents with lenient refs. Rather like the way we can predict when fellow season-ticket holder the Vicar's Son will lapse into ungodly language aimed at the referee (usually about the 12th minute against teams managed by Eddie Howe).

It's cost West Ham and Lucas a lot. Paqueta's form has clearly been affected for the last two seasons with the threat of a lifetime ban hanging over him. Let's remember that West Ham had just won a trophy when this all exploded. Paqueta had a move to Manchester City for £85m lined up and it was said the Irons were after Cole Palmer as a £40m replacement, which wouldn't have been too bad. The FA's tardiness in releasing the verdict has also been very effective at sabotaging West Ham's planning for the transfer window. West Ham must surely have a case for compensation. 

Meanwhile will Paqueta stay or go? It might be understandable if he wanted a new start in a different country. Encouragingly he's thanked God ("if he's found God it must have been one hell of a pass"), West Ham and the fans. That sounds like he wants to stay. If we could get the Paqueta back of two years ago then it could transform WHU's season.

Paqueta in limbo until June

The Guardian reports that after three weeks of hearings the Lucas Paqueta spot-fixing case has been adjourned until the summer. The FA's independent panel didn't conclude its proceedings in the three weeks and the lawyers are booked up on other cases until June. In a way this is good news for West Ham as Paqueta will be available for the rest of the season, though he'll be playing under even more stress and some clarity might have helped both club and player. 

It also leaves West Ham's transfer plans in disarray as the club has no idea whether a replacement for Lucas is required. It's slightly encouraging that in three weeks the panel hasn't come up with a verdict, suggesting it's complicated. If there was a clear paper or phone trail leading to Paqueta then he would surely have been found guilty by now. And rather like VAR if it's not clear and obvious that Paqueta knew about the bets then he should surely be assumed innocent until proven guilty when his career is at stake.

Moyes to give evidence at Paqueta hearing

The Daily Mail reports that David Moyes is to give evidence in the Lucas Paqueta FA betting hearing. That should be good news for Paqueta as one of the defence's arguments is that Paqueta had an £85 million move to Manchester City lined up and asked Moyes not to select him for the Bournemouth away match in August 2023. If Paqueta was trying to deliberately get booked in that game then he'd surely have wanted to play. The hearing started this week and is expected to last three weeks.

Nick De Marco KC, a leading sports lawyer, is defending Paqueta. Another argument that might be in Paqueta's favour is that the sums placed on him getting booked are very small, the 60 bets mainly from Paqueta Island ranging from £7 to £400. Surely if punters were certain he was going to get booked they would have gambled larger sums? It could also be argued that Lucas would always attract more bets in the booking gambling market as he often mistimes tackles and is a temperamental player who gets fouled a lot.

Paqueta is also in trouble for throwing his phone away when he upgraded it (which is perhaps a crime against electronic recycling) after it was returned to him from the FA. Jacob Steinberg in the Guardian wrote a good summary of the case. What is worrying is that it's not like a criminal court case and the FA can find him guilty on "the balance of probabilities". Being 51 per cent sure he did it seems a low burden of proof to possibly end a player's career. 

At least the case is finally being heard. Paqueta's form has undoubtedly been affected by the uncertainty and it has cost West Ham an £85 million transfer fee. Some clarity will benefit both player and club in what will be the biggest match of Paqueta's career.

Lucas in a spot of bother

It's certainly bad news for West Ham and Lucas Paqueta that the midfielder has been charged by the FA with breaches of spot-betting regulations, allegations he strenuously denies. If found guilty there are fears he could get a ten-year or even a lifetime ban. It would surely be peak West Ham to sign a player for £50 million and then see him banned for many years with no re-sale value. Without the £85 million from Paqueta's proposed move to Manchester City new gaffer Julen Lopetegui's options in the market would be limited too. 

Yet there is surely hope in the fact that without solid evidence allegations of getting deliberately booked are very difficult to prove, despite suspicious bets at Paqueta Island in Brazil. The player denies any knowledge of this. While sixty-two thousand West Ham fans also claim to have sold their car to Lucas Paqueta, though it's not necessarily true. 

Paqueta seems to be always getting silly bookings for lunging in or petulance, and they haven't stopped since the allegations appeared at the start of last season. He's an emotional player and he gets stuck in, yellow cards are aways likely. The Guardian reports that Paqueta was interviewed last September and gave the FA access to his phone a month later. Lucas has until June to respond to the allegations and for the sake of both player and club this needs to be resolved quickly.

City no longer gambling on Paqueta

Only at West Ham. So now it emerges that the FA are investigating Lucas Paqueta for possible betting breaches. This is likely to end Man City's interest as if found guilty he would be likely to be suspended. Brentford's Ivan Toney was banned for eight months for breaking the FA's betting rules. Sources close to Paqueta say he is shocked by the allegations. But it's going to be an anxious wait to see if Lucas is charged.   

Paqueta starts to look the real deal

Quite a few fans picked up on the way Lucas Paqueta celebrated Danny Ings' second goal against Nottingham Forest, arms outstretched, as if he'd scored himself. Paqueta had done really well to flick the ball over a defender, outmuscle a challenge and find Benrahma, whose run and cross set up Ings. Was that the moment Paqueta showed that he had adapted to the physicality of the Premier League? Lucas had his best game in a West Ham shirt on Saturday. He was unlucky not to score but more importantly dominated the game, being involved in just about everything in midfield. With Rice disciplined in the holding role and Soucek more advanced the central midfield trio all had good games. It's been a long time coming but finally Paqueta's starting to look like the player WHU paid £51 million for.